No matter what Donald Trump says in public… no matter what far too many members of the Republican Party are also saying in public… this is a fact:
Donald Trump will leave office on January 20, 2021.
But this is now an ongoing rumor:
Will Donald Trump run for President again in 2024?
This is not just made-up conspiracy theory. Nor is it an example of baseless speculation.
Trump himself has floated the idea.
When he’s not endangering our democracy and saying bat$hit insane things about this election having been rigged, the Commander-in-Chief has said he’ll strongly considering going up against Joe Biden in four years.
A person is allowed to serve two terms as President of the United States, but they need not be consecutive.
Heck, there’s been a report that Trump will hold a rally opposite Biden’s inauguration in January and announce his plans to run on that exact day.
It would be very a Donald Trump thing to do so, wouldn’t it?
Will this really happen, though? Will America really need to sit through a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024? Or a Kamala Harris-Trump showdown, if Biden only serves one term and essentially hands off the nomination to his Vice President?
John F. Harris of Politco doesn’t think so.
In a new piece titled “Relax, A Trump Comeback In 2024 Is Not Going To Happen,” Harris writes that there are “three primary reasons to be deeply skeptical that Trump’s moment of dominating his party and public consciousness will continue long after Jan. 20.”
FIRST, the writer argues that “cults of personality” in American politics have been quite common, from George Wallace to Ross Perot.
They simply never last very long in the national spotlight, despite how it often seems in the moment.
SECOND, Trump is basically a nut job who is totally removed from reality.
In 2016, he tapped in some genuine fears for many voters; such as issues with free trade and immigration.
These days, however?
“No one can follow Trump’s Twitter feed and believe that he cares more about the public’s problems than his own, and that is not a recipe for sustaining political power,” Harris argues.
THIRD, Trump has no idea how to change his tone or his personality or his strategy.
The coronavirus pandemic served as evidence of this, as Trump was literally unable to step back, acknowledge what was happening in the country and lead by a very kind of example than the one he chose.
Trump denied science. He played to his base. He focused on nothing but his own political survival — which, ironically, explains why he lost the 2020 election.
But while Trump is incapable of change… politics and the U.S. landscape are changing all the time.
Does Donald Trump have an enormous social media following? Yes.
But he’s a one-note narcissist with no actual vision for the country; someone like that cannot last at the top of his party, Harris believes:
What will [his] message be, beyond repeating claims of a stolen election that his own attorney general has said are not true. Conspiracy theories, of course, can have power, even when the evidence is nil …
But this isn’t a promising basis to return Trump to the White House or make him kingmaker.
These are all solid, reassuring points.
We’d like to add a fourth, however:
Donald Trump is extremely lazy.
Be honest now: do you think he’s more likely to hit the campaign trail with fervor over the next couple years… or the golf course?
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